Women's 1,500 M Heats Preview

Unlike the men, two qualification heats (heats and semi-finals), the women have to pass though just one qualification heat. Ethiopia had entered four runners (three runners and an alternate) but just two will be running in the heats.Gelete Burka and Meskerem Assefa. The other two entries were steeplechase runners, Mekdes Bekele and Zemzem Ahmed. These two had never ran the 1,500 internationally. It's hard to understand why the were entered in the first place.

I find it astounding that Ethiopia is unable to field three runners in this event. When it comes to the 1,500 M the Federation seems completely lost. It always confuses it with other races. This is not the 5, 000 and this is not the Steeplechase! This is the 1,500 M!

Ethiopia has an abundance of talent at this distance. Case and point, Maryam Yusuf Jamal who now runs for Bahrain. Maryam Yusuf Jamal who claims to have been mismanaged while running for Ethiopia is the prohibitive favorite in this race. Talented Gelete Burka has also been mismanaged by being entered in one too many 5,000 M races and a slew of cross-country races. While one can never question Meseret Defar’s results in the 5,000 M, my suspicion is that she probably would have been as good or better at the 1,500 M. Others include Kutre Dulecha (Bronze in 1999 World Championships and now a marathon runner) and Mestawot Tadesse who has disappeared. And finally, who can forget the immortal Alem Techale, 2003 World Junior champion. She would have be 21 and in her prime. The country is loaded with talent. The Federation needs to learn how to harness the abundant talent. The 1,500 M must be taken seriously. In addition an 800 M program goes hand in hand with a 1,500 M and should be part of any 1,500 M program development. Ethiopia needs to stop trying to sweep races and instead it should expand event participation.

The women have a trail that that can follow. It was blazed by Kutre Dulecha who was a silver medalist in the 1999 World Championships. She went on to finish 4th in Sydney in 2000. Unlike Gelete, Kurte was never entered into 5000M events. Gelete is one of the finest athletes in the 1,500 and she should easily qualify. Gelete is considered a medal contender. Meskerem Assefa was 12th in her heat in Athens four years ago. Her times are not great. She will find it will be hard for her to advance, but she can always surprise us.

Look for Gelete in the finals.

Men's 5,000 M Heats

Anyone watch this? I was not able to do so.

All three easily qualified. So did Alemayehu Bezabeh of Spain. From looking at the results it looks like the Ethiopians were laying low, all three finishing 3rd. I am surprised that Kenenisa Bekele finished third. It's something he hates doing even in heats.

Rashid Ramzi winner of the 1,500 in Beijing did not run in his heat. He would have been one of the favorites.

The loud-mouth Australian Craig Mottram did not make it to the finals.

Mohammed Farah Britain's great hope also failed to qualify.

Finally, my sentimental favorite, Soe Min Thu finished dead last in a time of 15:50.56. Two minutes and 13 seconds after the finisher and a minute and half after the guy in front of him. This is the Olympics. If you are here you finish. Some names come to mind Gete Wami, Berhane Adere and Mestewat Tufa... Enough said.

From Homeless in Madrid to Olympics in Beijing

The story of twenty one year-old (he guesses his age) Alemayehu Bezabeh Desta is heartbreaking yet elating. Like most of us he left Ethiopia to make something of himself. In his case he wanted to do it by running. It was not that easy.

He had no papers and struggled to survive For a while he slept in Bravo Murillo, in Madrid and ate at mission soup kitchens for the homeless. A priest at the mission helped him apply for political asylum. The priest also contacted an African refugee assistance group called Karibu.

Karibu put him in contact with another Ethiopian who living in Madrid. The other athlete, Fekadu Bekele, introduced him to his club. The club in Madrid is called Bikila, like in Abebe Bikila. The club was amazed at his talent level and he has progressed quickly. In July of this year he was granted Spanish citizenship. He had to run a race to qualify for the Olympics which he easily did. His talent level is such that he is already threatening the Spanish record.

This in short is the story of Alemayehu Bezabeh Desta. From the streets of Madrid to the the Olympics in just months. He says he would like to repay Spain with a medal. He is in the 5,000 Heat with Tariku Bekele.

Men's 5000 M Heats Preview

The men's 5,000M going to be a thrilling race. The reason is that it’s wide open yet there is a outside chance for multiple Ethiopian medals.

World Champion Bernard Lagat (USA) will be running the 5,000. In what is a major disappointment of the US, he failed to qualify for 1,500 M finals. Actually Deresse Mekonen was nipping at his heals and almost overtook him at the end. Lagat is probably fighting an injury. But if he is healthy, a rested Legat is a dangerous Legat.

I think the best Kenyan 5,000 M runner at the moment is Moses Masai, 3rd place finisher at the 10,000 M. But lucky for us Kenya is not running him in the 5,000 M. Without Masai, the Kenyan team is still a loaded team. Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) second place finisher in Osaka and Olympic silver medalist is a very dangerous runner. So far this year, Eliud Kipchoge beat Tariku Bekele in Ostrava and again in Rome. Hope he does not make that a habit.

Moses Kipsiro of Uganda, 3rd place finisher in Osaka. He is only 22 and a very dangerous runner.

And then there is Soe Min Thu (MYA) , - Myanmar – Burma. Soe Min Thu has a personal best time of 15:16.23. His best time would not qualify him for the Women’s finals. I should be more polite as Burmese are very kind and the most polite people you would find on the planet. Having traveled there, I have a soft spot for the people of Burma. It’s easy – almost natural for an Ethiopian sense repression and relate. It would be hard to pass without commenting that China is the primary supporter of the repressive regime that doles out misery. The people of Burma will be cheering on their native son because one still cheers their countrymen regradless of the govenrment running it. Well, I can relate to that too. Good luck to Soe Min Thu. Hope he sets a personal best.

Returning to the 5,000 M, there are three heats and in each heat the Ethiopian runner has the best 2008 time. The three, Abraham Cherkos, Tariku Bekele and Kenenisa Bekele are in great shape this year. It should be a jog for the them.

The things to watch for:
1- How does Kenenisa look?
2- How well do Tariku and Abraham assert themselves in the heats? Do they take control of the heat? How confident do they look?
3- Does Legat make it to the finals? Is he in good shape?

What are your thoughts?

Women's 5000 M Heats

First heat is a slow race but Tirunesh takes it in 15:09.89. Meselech Melkamu is in as well. The Turk, Alemitu Bekele also makes it.

In the second heat Meseret Defar easly makes it into the finals.

I think Meseret is the favorite to win this race. What are you thoughts?

Women's 5000 M Heats Preview

Unless there is a disaster look for all three Ethiopian runners to make it through. It should be a jog.

In addtion to Tirunesh there are a few runners doubling. Gulnara Samitova-Galkina (RUS) winner of the 3,000 Steeplechase is going for a double gold. She was dominant in Steeplechase and broke the World Record on Sunday. Fifth place finisher in the in the 3,000 Steeplechase, Jessica Augusto (PUR), is also running the 5,000. Both Steeplechase runners are entered for the 1,500 M. I am not sure how they plan to pull off the triple.

Seven 10,000 M runners will be starting the 5,000. In the first heat has Tirunesh Dibaba (ETH) and Yingying Zhang (CHN) from the 10,000 M. In the second heat hedlined by Meseret Defar, will have a pack of tired legs from the 10,000 M. Kara Goucher (USA), Joanne Pavey (GBR) and Yukiko Akaba (JPN) are looking for redemption in the 5,000M while Shalane Flanagan (USA) and Elvan Abeylegesse(TUR) look to add to their medals.

A runner to note is 31 year-old Alemitu Bekele of Turkey who has a personal best time of 15:05.85 and does not have much of a chance to win a medal.

What to look for? How is Tirunesh holding up? How does Meselech Melkamu look?

It's Official - Tirunesh will go for the double

The start list has been finalized.

1. Meselech Melkamu (Heat 1)
2. Tirunesh Dibaba (Heat 1)
3. Meseret Defar (Heat 2)

There is a chance for a sweep but all three must make it to the final. So no tripping! no falling!

3,000 M Steeplechase: Yacob Jarso Arrives!

This has got to be one of the bright spots of this Olympics. Yacob Jarso finished fourth in the 3,000 M Steeplechase. We don't see this often. He was someone that was not supposed to be in the finals but he ran the race of his life. Twice in a row! He beat the erudite and wily Ezekiel Kemboi, Olympic Champion and World Championship runner up. This was no easy feat.

The steeplechase is like a marathon. It's hard for someone without the track record to step up. When a young athlete steps up, it's raw talent over skills. It is obvious that Yacob has an abundance of talent. One don't come in fourth and set a National Record at 20 with limited experience unless you are immensely talented. If managed properly he is a force to be reckoned with. He alone will cause Kenyans plenty of headaches.

Yacob's performance, Zemzem Ahmed's seventh place finish in the Women's Final as well as Legesse Lamiso's godl in the 2008 World Youth World Championships are successes that Ethiopia needs to build on.

To Double or Not?

I haven't heard of a decisions as to Tirunesh running in the 5,000 M. Doing a double is not easy. The dominant Kenenisa never managed to do it in two tries. But Tirunesh has been there and done that. In the 2005 WC she did the double beating Berhane Adere and Mesert Defar. My guess is that she will go for it. It won't be easy running against a rested Meseret.

Here are some of my thoughts that come to mind when weighing if she should or should not.

Pros:

• Tirunesh Dibaba proved she was in great shape. Looked like she could sprint another lap.
  
• She must be brimming with confidence.
  
• Her 5, 000 M WC in June means she may be even better at the 5,000 (scary)
• The runner that would be displaced, Belaynesh Fekadu, is not a medal threat.
• She is a sure thing to medal.
  

Cons:

• She ran a super fast 10,000 M and may not recover fast enough - slow performance.
• Too many races in a short time increases the risk for injury.
  
• Belayanesh Fekadu only 21, is on an up swing and will miss out an opportunity.

Any opinions?

Sunday Update & Monday Preview

Sunday

Men's 1,500 Semi-Final M - Backsliding

Both of the guys did not make it to the finals. This has to be a dig disappointment. Mulugeta Wendimu was in the finals four years ago and this is a step back. The expansion program is a failure so far.

Women's 3,000 M Finals - Solid Performance

Zemzem stood her ground and finished seventh. This is a good result that came about as a result of an individual's extraordinary effort.


Monday

Men's 3,000 M Final

If I had to, I would bet on a Kenya sweep. Yakob Jarso has his work cutout. He has to run the race of his life to be in the top six. The following are the favorites.

1. Brimin Kipruto (KEN)
2. Ezekiel Kemboi (KEN)
3. Richard Mateelong (KEN)
4. Bouabdellah Tahri (FRA)
5. Mustafa Mohamed (SEW)
6. Ruben Ramolefi (RSA)

Good luck to Yakob go out and have a great outing like Zemzem.

Open Thread: Men's 10000M Live

"As for these young ones, either I will end up staying on their heels or they'll be the ones doing that," said Gebrselassie with a smile.

The above is from a nice write up on the upcoming 10000M. It almost seems like Haile is taunting Kenenisa and Sileshi. Hopefully, we are about to watch history being made... chime in your thoughts.

Open Thread: Women's Marathon Live

It should be kicking off at 7:30 PM. NBC will televise it live. I am opening up this thread for your comments as events unfold.





Let not forget the pioneer Fatuma Roba who came out of nowhere to dominate the 1996 Marathon.

Men's 10,000 M Prediction

Here it is! I will go on a limb and say anything other than a sweep is a disappointment. What’s the point of Haile taking up a spot if he is not here to win a medal? If the others don't medal it's a huge disappointment.

Kennenisa and Sileshi have been as solid as it gets. In 2004 an injured Haile still came in 5th. Haile is fit and he showed it in Hengelo coming in 2nd after Sileshi. Sileshi had to run his third fastest time ever to beat Haile.

Kenya has a young crew; the senior among them is twenty three year old Martin Mathathi who took bronze in Osaka. You never know what this young crew can do.

In Osaka, Zersenay Tadesse of Eritrea pushed the pace alone only to fade later. This time around he has his brother Kidane Tadesse. Zersenay and his brother are both capable of winning a medal if they work together.

And there is Boniface Kiprop of Uganda who lost his bronze in Athens to Zersenay in the confusion that Kennenisa and Sileshi created in Athens. Boniface, was 19 in Athens and had broken of from the pack along with Kennenisa and Sileshi but when the two slowed down to pick up Haile they confused Kiporop and at the same time picked up Zersenay. He is still a solid runner.





One thing to watch for is competition among the Ethiopian runners is going to be fierce. This may work against the sweep. Sileshi and Haile probably can’t out sprint Kenenisa so a slow race is not in their favor but at the same time a fast race does not help them either since Kenenisa has the Seasons Best. Of the two bad options, Haile probably would prefer a fast race hoping the heat would distract the other two. The danger is that there probably won’t be a team approach to this race.


What are your thoughts?

Women's Marathon Prediction

Using past performance I put together a sheet that would identify the favorites. This is going to be a tactical marathon where one’s Personal Best is not as important as one’s preparation. So predicting is not easy but past performances especially Athens and Osaka could be useful indicators.

On paper the following are the favorites.

1. Catherine Ndereba (KEN)
2. Chunxiu Zhou (CHN)
3. Reiko Tosa (JPN)
4. Xiaolin Zhu (CHN)
5. Paula Radcliffe (GBR)
6. Lidia Simon (ROU)
7. Deena Kastor (USA)
8. Constantina Tomescu (ROM)

The marathon is one of the most unpredictable events but Ndereba has been a solid performer. It would be hard to bet against her. Paula Radcliffe who was suffering from a stress fracture is fit for the race but the edge should go to Ndereba. Look out for the Chinese runners on home turn. Zhou and Zhu were impressive in Osaka which was hot and humid.

As for the Ethiopian runners, Gete Wami and Brehane Adere had skipped the last World Championship. I think that was a big mistake. The heat and humidity of Osaka would have helped them prepare, but the two had some money to chase on the Marathon circuit in cooler climate. Who can blame them? They have a living to make just like me. In April Gete Wami came in second behind Radcliffe in London. I can’t see her beating Ndereba in hot humid Beijing. Last October, Brehane looked like she was overcome by the heat and humidity in Chicago where it was unseasonably hot88F/31C in October but in the last quarter of a mile (400m) she put on a sprint to blow by a Romanian runner that was blowing victory kisses to the crowd. Somehow I think she is our best chance. This would be a great way to cap an amazing career.

The third runner is Boston Champ Dire Tune who had a big DNF in Osaka. Again, her preparation is suspect but having run in Osaka she knows what to expect. Dire Tune is fine runner with lots of untapped potential. It would be wonderful if she stepped up.


My prediction is that Berhane will be in the mix with the Chinese, Japanese, Romanian’s and Ndereba. Look for the home crowd to lift the Chinese runners.

What are your thoughts?

Beijing T&F - Day 3

It's a big day. I have to admit I a getting dizzy trying to analyze the women's Marathon. I will open up an thread for prediction.

Women’s 3,000 M Final

The long-legged Zemzem Ahmed set a Personal Best to make it to the finals. Zemzem Personal Best and Season Best ranks 12th among the 15 runners. She would have to set another personal best to have a good showing. This event is going to be a battle between three Russians including world record holder Gulnara Samitova-Galkina and two Kenyans. Zemzem somehow has to squeeze her way somehow. This is a lot to ask from someone who started competing internationally just last year. In additions, Zemzem will be running one full-day of rest after setting a personal best. Although Zemzem is a very long shot to medal it’s not impossible for her to do so. Earlier this year she came in second at the Athens Grand Prix beating five of the runners in the finals including Ruth Bisibori of Kenya.

Mid-pack finish will be great. I would be elated with a 4th-6th place finish.

Men’s 1,500 M Semi-Final

There is not much to say here. Mulugeta Wendimu barely made it into the semi-finals and Deresse Mekonnen was not much better. The 1,500 M is one of the most tactical races while at the same time physically draining. For Ethiopia to have two runners among the 12 finalist would be a huge accomplishment. Talentwise there will be nothing preventing these two from making it into the finials. The only questions is: are they going to step up to the challenge?

Look for on of the two to be in the finals.

Beijing T&F - Day 2

On Saturday the only event Ethiopian athletes are participating in is the Men's 3,000 M Steeplechase. By contrast Sunday is packed with the Women's Marathon and Steeplechase finals, the Men's 10,000 M finals and the 1,500 M semi-finals. By the end of Sunday we will be able to size up the team's performance. If the team is not prepared for the heat and humidity we will see it in the medal count. If the preparation was not adequate it will be downhill after Sunday. Y

I did get ahead of myself. So let me return to Saturday.

Men's 3,000 M Steeplechase - Baby Steps

Ethiopia has made steady progress in this event. In 2004, Luleseged Wale and Tewodros Shiferaw were entered and both failed to advance. At the 2005 World Championships Tewodros Shiferaw failed to advance. At the 2007 World Championships Roba Gary and Nahom Mesfin advanced to the finals. The team of Roba Gary, Yacob Jarso and Nahom Mesfin is still young but having advanced to the WC finals Roba and Nahom should be in the finals. This however is not a cake walk, both are on the buble and have to work hard to advance. Yacob would have to follow Zemzem Ahmed's example and set a PB to make it to the finals.

Look for Roba and Nahom in the finals.


Update:
The surprising Yacob Jarso ran a personal best and won his heat and will be in the finals on Monday. Roba and Nahom did not make it. Nahom just missed out, finishing 5th in a slow heat (top 4 qualify). This is a step back for Roba and Nahom but it's gratifying to see some young runners such as Yacob and Zemzem step up.

Tirunesh Dibaba Solid Gold

Just when I thought she will never be able to top her Osaka performance Tirunesh Dibaba does it gain. The World Records set by Junxia Wang in '93 of China is drug induced. Tirunesh essentially set a World Record with the temperature in the high 70s. A champion does what it takes to win. Remember Haile in Sydney? In that context, it took for Dibaba to set a WR to win and she did what she had to do. With this sold win she has placed herself in the upper echelon of golden champions right there with Haile. Solid Gold Tirunesh!

11 of the top 13 runners set some sort of record in this race. Ejegayehu Dibabadid not rise to the occasion. Ejegayehu was off her PB of 30:18.39 by more than a minute. She was also off here Athens time of 30:24.98 by 58 seconds. This is a huge drop off. I wonder if she has the hunger of a champion. What ever happened to the Athens silver medalist we knew? I suspect this may be her last hurrah. Look for her to fade from the 10,000.

Mestawet Tufa is fast becoming a perennial disappointment. No one ever questions her talent. But somehow she seems to choke under the bright lights. No doubt she is hungry, but hunger alone does not win championships. Champions figure out ways to win when conditions change and it that that Mestawet has had a problem doing. At 25, she may have a few more chances but this was her big opportunity.

Next Olympics it my very well be Meseret and Tirunesh in the 10,000M and there are just too many young budding atheltes.

The disappointements should not take away from an amazing performance by Tirunesh. Today we saw a display of hardwork, courage, confidence and determination. These are attibutes we all want to have more of. She is simply an amazing human being.

Women's 10,000 M Open Thread

About 30 mins before the start... what are your thoughts.. update comments as news comes in..

Beijing T&F - Day 1

Men's 1,500M - Two Advance

As expected Deresse Mekonnen and Mulugeta Wendimu have made it to Sunday's semi-final's. Deresse Mekonnen had a solid run and was fifth in his heat. Mulugeta finished seventh in his heat but qualified on time. None of these guys are a sure thing to make it to the finals.

Women's 3,000M - Hello Zemzem
Mekdes Bekele ran 26 seconds slower than her personal best and failed to advance while Zemzem Ahmed ran a personal best and advanced. Running a personal best at hot and humid Beijing is a testament to her talent and courage. She is am example the other athletes should follow.

Beijing T&F - Day 1 Preview

As far as Ethiopia is concerned, the medal total at the Athens Olympics four years ago was not up to par. Most of it had to do with the fact that Ethiopia participates a small number of events. To have a good Olympic, the Ethiopian team needs multiple medals per event. To some extent that is still true. But Ethiopia is gradually establishing itself in the 1,500 M and the 3,000 M. In Beijing we will see have an opportunity to gauge the strength of the new programs. In addition, Beijing will be the first time that the new generation of athletes Kenenisa, Seleshi, Tirunesh, Ejigaehu and Meseret come to the Olympics as medalist. Day one of track and field is a display of both the new and the old.


Mens 1,500 M Heats - Just Advance
In Athens, a then promising and impressive Mulugeta Wondimu made it all the way to the finals and finished 10th in the finals. At the 2005 World Championships Mulugeta finished 12th in the first round and did not advance. While Mulugeta Wondimu has somewhat stagnated since 2004,
in 2004 he left a mark against which he and his teammates will be measured against.

This time around two young runners Deresse Mekonnen and Demma Daba along with Mulugeta Wendimu will represent Ethiopia. The problem is that this young group of runners is still developing. Last year, Kenenisa Bekele ran a 1,500 M and this is how Kenenisa's time compares against the personal best of the three 1,500 M runners.

Mulugeta Wendimu 03:31.1
Kenenisa Bekele 3:32.35
Deresse Mekonnen 03:33.7
Demma Daba 03:35.3

The bottom line is that Kenenisa is as good at the 1,500 M Ethiopian runners and he is a 10, 000 M runner. We should not get our hopes up, at least not yet.

In 2007, none of the Ethiopian runners advanced to the finals. Deresse Mekonnen finished 11th in his heat but nearly qualified for the next round based on his time. Of the three Deresse Mekonnen has the best time this year, a slow but impressive win in Oslo where his beat some of the top athletes at the event. Demma is a solid young runner that is on the bubble and can advance with a solid run.

Expect two of the three to advance to the next round.



Women’s 3,000 M Steeplechase Simi-Final - First Ever
This is the first time the Women’s 3,000 Steeplechase is part of the Olympic program and we are in it. Ethiopia will be represented by Mekdes Bekele, Sofia Assefa and Zemzem Ahmed. Of the three, Mekdes Bekele is the most likely to advance. At the 2007 World Championship no Ethiopian woman made it to the final. Mekdses Bekele was close, finishing 6th in her heat (top 4 automatically qualify) and Zemzem finished 12th.

Look for Mekdes to make it to the finals. Anything else is a bonus.



Women’s 10,000 M Final – To Sweep or Not to Sweep?

The 2007 World Championship Women's 10,000M almost ended in disaster, when Tirunesh Dibaba tripped and fell. She managed to get back in the race and win. I would venture to say that Tirunesh Dibaba is a sure gold medal, more so that Kenenisa. After setting the 5,000 WR she comes in top shape.

After being involved in a fall Mestawet Tufa did not finish in Osaka last year. However, Mestawet has had a solid year which included beating Lornah Kiplagat by 25 seconds in Nijmegn. Kiplagat has the fastest time in the field. Mestawet is hungry so look for Mestawet to push Tirunesh.

The key to a sweep is how 2004 silver medalist Ejegayehu Dibaba performs. In hot and humid Osaka she faded to 7th place last year.

Let's identify threats to the sweep using the Personal Best and the Season Best of the top ten runners in the 10,000 M.

The threats to the sweep

• Naving finished 2nd in Osaka, former Ethiopian Elvan Abeylegesse of Turkey is a threat. She however is inconsistent and has been known to choke.

• Lornah Kiplagat has the best time in the field but was soundly defeated by Mestawet earlier this year. Even though her best years may be behind here, 34 year old Lornah Kiplagat is still a dangerous runner.

• The dark horse is Inga Abitova of Russia has run in a lot of 10,000M races this season and has quietly had a very good season. I won’t be surprised if I see her on the podium.
  

• In May at Palo Altho, Shalane Flanagan (USA) and Kimberley Smith (NZL) recorded to top two times of the year, both set personal bests. With the impressive times there is a buzz around these two runner but they are a long shot.
  

Look for two medals. One is solid gold.