If You Are Not Growing You Are Dying

With the Olympic over, the flag wavers are out declaring Ethiopia had a magnificent Olympic. Excuse me but are we watching the same Olympic? Perhaps we are living in an era of low expectations? Perhaps it’s in our nature to flag wave at every opportunity without exploring the underlying reality.

Magnificent when your only overachiever is Tsegaye Kebede, a bronze medalist? Magnificent when you don't even meet your own goal of ten medals? Sorry to burst some bubbles but the "magnificent" moments were created by two – get this - two athletes. Tirunesh Dibaba and Kenenisa Bekele! Team Ethiopia did not have a magnificent Olympic. These two athletes had a magnificent Olympic.

Tirunesh Dibaba and Kenenisa Bekele were asked to double out of desperation. They skewed the medal count and covered up the poor development, selection and preparation by the Federation. Ethiopian athletics is in decline. Just take a look at the list of Kenyan athletes that earned a medal next to the list of Ethiopians.

Kenya	Ethiopia
Nancy Lagat Brimin Kipruto Wilfred Bungei Pamela Jelimo Samuel Wanjiru Asbel Kiprop Eunice Jepkorir Eliud Kipchoge Janeth Jepkosgei Catherine Ndereba Micah Kogo Richard Mateelong Edwin Soi Alfred Yego	Kenenisa Bekele Tirunesh Dibaba Sileshi Sihine Meseret Defar Tsegaye Kebede

Mighty thin for a county that has twice the population of Kenya!


Obsession with sweeping...

In Ethiopia, there is a bizarre obsession with sweeping events. Winning multiple medals in any event is very hard. The best way to increase medal counts is to the expand into new events. Spending time and energy trying to sweep is more expensive than developing medal contenders in the 800 M and 1,500M. Kenyan will always have at least two medal contenders in the 10,000 and 5,000.

A sweep does not happen often. If it does, it can't happen at every Olympic. You can't design successful programs that sweep races. The odds are against sweeps. This wrong headed obsession with sweeps has made the Federation lazy. Instead of developing athletes in middle distance events the Federation dreams of multiple medals in a few events.

Ethiopia has the talent base (if developed) to compete in races 800M and further. In Beijing, Kenya for instance, contested the men’s 400M and won gold in both the Men’s and Women’s 800M while Ethiopia did not even have enough runners to fill its slot of 1,500 M Women’s runners. Take a look at how diverse Kenya’s medal haul was compared to Ethiopia’s.




There is no guarantee that the next Kenenisa Bekele and Tirunesh Dibaba will be Ethiopian. They could be Kenyan. What would we do then?

We need to stop obsessing about sweeps and double medals. Diversification is needed to increase medal counts.

Lack of breakthroughs...

Sydney was high mark for Ethiopian Athletics. Sydney was remarkable because several unknown athletes stepping up to win gold. Million Wolde surprised even himself by winning the men’s 5,000M. Gezahegn Abera and Tesfaye Tola came out of nowhere to win two medals in the marathon. Everyone had assumed Derartu was on her last legs when she won gold.

Almost every other Olympic Ethiopia participated in has had a surprise. Abebe Bikila, Mamo Wolde, Miruts Yifter, Derartu Tulu, Fatuma Roba and Meseret Defar produced unexpected results.

So who stepped up in Beijing? Tesegaye Kebded, Deriba Merga, Zemzem Ahmed and Yakob Jarso - barely. None of them had a true breakthrough.


Time to change

Kenyan athletics had been in decline since 1988. In Sydney the Kenyan Athletic Federation was stung by Ethiopia’s success and recognized something was amiss. They started changing course. They revised the selection process and modified their preparation. They kept working on it in Athens and in Beijing we saw the results of the changes. Fourteen medals!

They were smart. They did not waste time trying to reclaim the 10,000M and 5,000M medals. Instead they strengthened their 1,500 M and 800M programs while at the same time working to improve in the long distance events. Notice how Kenya had fielded some excellent talent in the 5,000 M and 10,000M. From Athens to Beijing they went from winning one gold medal to winning five gold medals and doubling their medal totals. Kenya now has a foundation on which they can continue to build. Ethiopia on the other hand seems stuck since Sydney with no medal growth.




The number of medals won can be misleading. The number of individuals that produce these medals is a good indicator of how good a country is at developing athletes. From the chart below Ethiopia actually took a step back while Kenya has made great leaps.

Grow or die

There is a mantra that says if you are not growing you are dying. The world is catching up. One just needs to look no further than the performance of Shalane Flanagan who finished 3rd in the 10,000M. She beat two Ethiopian favorites.

Had we not had Tirunesh Dibaba, Turkey would have had a double gold medalist. Turkey, Bahrain, Spain and Israel fielded Ethiopian-born runners. Look for many more Ethiopian-born runners to run for their new countries. Look for these Ethiopian-born to fight Ethiopia for medals.

Life is not getting easier.

Accountability

Now that the Ethiopian Athletics Federation failed to achieve its own goals it’s time that someone is held accountable. Responsibility must be taken and changes made.

I suspect that is not going to happen. Ethiopian Politicians, who themselves have never been held accountable and therefore clueless when it comes to accountability will spin the "success of Beijing" till we drop from dizziness. No one will be held accountable because no one wants to admit there are problems. Meanwhile the same people will continue doing the same things and we will continue getting worse as others get better.

Decline can come fast. One only needs to look at the decline of football in Ethiopia. I hope that is not in the future of athletics.